WEATHER INTELLIGENCE · OUTDOOR STAY
R395+F9 · the weather outlook
14 October–7 November 2026 · 30.8186875° N, 35.0584375° E
Updated 14 October 2026, 01:47 IDT
Next 7 days · daytime27–32°CCentral estimates for daily highs
Night / early morning18–22°CCentral estimates for daily lows
Rain ≥1 mm in a day2% maxHighest model-estimated daily probability; 7 days with rain data
The practical reading
14 October is the hottest near-term day: the ensemble central high is about 32°C, with a 29–34°C model range; one deterministic model reaches about 36°C. By 16–20 October, central highs settle near 27–28°C, with lows near 18–19°C. The cool side of the model range reaches about 14–16°C on some nights, relevant to an outdoor stay.
Rain is unlikely in the coming week. The family-balanced probability of at least 1 mm in a day stays below 2% through 20 October, and all eight deterministic models are dry at the point for 14–16 October. Small rain signals later in the window are worth monitoring, but no exact late-period rain date is dependable now. The wider region and upstream catchments still require their own warning checks.
Watch the wind on 14–15 October, and a tentative signal on 19 October. Most ensemble peak-gust scenarios lie below 40 km/h, but ICON reaches about 41 km/h on the 14th and GFS about 44 km/h on the 15th. ICON’s first peak is around 18:00 on the 14th; GFS places its stronger peak around 04:00 on the 15th, so the overnight period matters too. ICON also reaches about 50 km/h on the 19th, a less-certain signal several days out. These are individual-model timings, not confirmed event times. Exposed shade structures and loose equipment should be planned around the possibility of stronger gusts than the central estimate. There is no strong ≥60 km/h signal in the current first-week ensembles; that is not a guarantee against a local gust.
Late October to 7 November remains an outlook. Extended GEFS and GEM favor broadly upper-20s daytime conditions trending toward the mid-20s, with nights mostly in the teens. Their spread includes materially cooler and wetter scenarios. Across the complete 25-day period, the two extended ensembles give a central total near 3 mm and a broad 10th–90th percentile range of about 0–15 mm. This low-confidence long-range diagnostic is not a guarantee of a dry event and cannot locate individual showers in time. ECMWF’s weekly point chart supports only a weak temperature tendency and leaves rain uncertainty; it does not justify a detailed day-by-day forecast.
Evidence basis: eight ensemble configurations totaling 307 model members at the start of the window, grouped into six families rather than counted as independent votes; eight deterministic cross-checks; IMS warnings and observations; ECMWF extended guidance; and a 1991–2020 ERA5 reference. Availability decreases with lead time. Gust guidance has fewer contributing families than temperature and rain.
What changed
This is the first saved baseline. Tomorrow’s report will compare the same valid dates and flag changes in forecast, source coverage, timing and official warnings.
Daily outlook · detailed range
Bold is the family-balanced median; parentheses show the 10th–90th percentile model range. These are uncalibrated model estimates, not guaranteed limits. Rain probability refers to the whole local day; a model probability of 0% does not establish zero real-world risk.
Days 8–15 · lower confidence
Timing is increasingly uncertain. A narrower range or lower gust estimate can result from fewer available models, not improved certainty.
Later dates · period outlook only
Do not use these dates for precise rain timing or tent-loading decisions. Temperature ranges describe the period-average daily low/high across ensemble scenarios; rain is the period total. Wind/gust is the greatest modeled value anywhere in the period.
Wind and rain attention signals
Attention levels: sustained wind ≥30 km/h; gusts ≥40 km/h and ≥60 km/h. These are monitoring thresholds, not structural or equipment ratings. Individual models can show a useful warning signal even when the consensus is lower.
Next 72 hours: stronger model events
Hour-by-hour guidance for the next 72 hours
Hourly output can be interpolated from 3- or 6-hourly source data. Precipitation and gust fields refer to the preceding hour; the temperature and wind fields refer to the stated time.
Deterministic cross-check: next 7 days
Official IMS check
Snapshot: 14 Oct 2026 01:51 IDT. Official warnings · National forecast
The exact coordinate falls in the IMS Northern Arava warning region. The Dimona forecast point is about 28 km north of the event site.
Yellow early warning for heat stress. This notice applies to the site’s IMS warning region.
Valid 14 Oct 2026 12:00 IDT to 14 Oct 2026 21:00 IDT.
Issued 13 Oct 2026 15:43 IDT; IMS notice 144154.
At this snapshot, the southern flood and storm warning feeds contained no entries. This is a current check only; it does not rule out later warnings or upstream flash floods.
A separate notice for poor visibility in mountain cloud or mist includes the Negev Mountain region (14 Oct 2026 02:00 IDT–14 Oct 2026 06:00 IDT). Its polygon does not contain the event coordinate; routes through that region may differ.
Nearby measured conditions
IMS hourly observation file · Distances are from the exact event coordinate. Ages below are measured at the snapshot time.
Hazeva is a low-lying Arava station; Sede Boqer and Avdat are plateau stations. These elevation differences matter. None measures the event site.
National forecast cross-check
Forecaster bulletin issued 13 Oct 2026 16:07 IDT. The wording below is a short paraphrase.
- 2026-10-14: Partial cloud cover. Warmer. Temperatures return toward typical seasonal values.
- 2026-10-15: Variable cloud cover, at times extensive. Cooler. Temperatures remain below typical seasonal values. Rain chances mainly in northern and coastal areas.
- 2026-10-16: Variable cloud cover, at times extensive. Cooler. Rain chances mainly in northern and coastal areas. Isolated thunderstorms possible.
- 2026-10-17: Variable cloud cover, at times extensive. Temperatures remain below typical seasonal values. Rain chances mainly in northern and coastal areas.
Nearby city forecasts are geographic proxies, not site measurements. Fresh six-hour XML issue: Wed Oct 14 00:47:18 IDT 2026; last valid time: 21 Oct 2026 03:00 IDT. The API’s older created fields appear to be database insertion dates; do not treat them as model initialization or rely on them to assess forecast freshness. Use the explicit XML issue time and model run time. Detailed forecasts do not extend beyond their published horizon.
Radar and regional rain maps
The IMS radar frame for 14 October 01:40 IDT shows no colored precipitation echoes around the georeferenced event coordinate. A check of the image pixels in the surrounding roughly 20 km neighborhood also found no colored echo. This describes the available radar image, not a ground rain measurement.
Visual review of 26 six-hour precipitation panels from the 13 October 12Z ICON-IL and COSMO-IL runs, ending between 14 October 00Z and 17 October 00Z, found the event-site vicinity unshaded throughout. Most rain develops over the Mediterranean and later northern/coastal areas. COSMO additionally shows a localized rain band mainly east of the Arava, on the Jordanian side, for the six hours ending 14 October 18Z (21:00 IDT); ICON does not show the same feature. This nearby convective disagreement deserves rechecking as the period approaches.
The regional map review is qualitative: it does not establish an exact point rainfall amount or cover every upstream catchment. Radar has range, terrain and sensitivity limits. Continue to use the official warning feed and fresh observations; absence of echoes or an unshaded forecast is not proof that flash floods cannot occur.
Visual review: 14 Oct 2026 01:56 IDT. Findings refer only to images saved with this snapshot.
Latest radar frame: 14 Oct 2026 01:45 IDT. Original radar image
ICON - IL run 2026-10-13 12:00:00 UTC; available maps through 2026-10-17 06:00:00 UTC. IMS model maps
COSMO - IL run 2026-10-13 12:00:00 UTC; available maps through 2026-10-17 06:00:00 UTC. IMS model maps
ICON-IL uses approximately 2.5 km grid spacing and ECMWF boundary conditions, so it is not an independent global-model vote. Radar can miss weak precipitation or have coverage limits; an unshaded model map is a forecast, not an all-clear.
ICON six-hour precipitation frames reviewed
Each panel shows the previous six hours of modeled precipitation, ending at its UTC label. Exact colors and positions are preserved in the original source PNGs in this snapshot.COSMO six-hour precipitation frames reviewed
Each panel shows the previous six hours of modeled precipitation, ending at its UTC label. Exact colors and positions are preserved in the original source PNGs in this snapshot.Extended outlook and historical context
ECMWF weekly guidance
Model initialized 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z; retrieved 2026-10-13T22:52:25.932234+00:00. Weekly anomalies are relative to ECMWF’s own model climate. They do not specify individual-day temperatures, rain timing or gusts.
Visual reading of this run: 19–25 October has a slightly cooler-than-normal weekly temperature median; 26 October–1 November and 2–8 November show a modest warm tilt. The temperature spread includes normal. Rainfall medians stay near zero anomaly, with a broader wetter upper tail later. This is qualitative guidance, not numerical point data extracted from pixels.
Each box is labelled at the end of its weekly interval. In the initial researched run, 9 November represents 2–8 November, extending one day past this report’s 7 November endpoint. The graphic identifies the selected model grid point; it can differ from the requested coordinates. Model-climate anomalies must not be added mechanically to the ERA5 baseline below.
Sources: ECMWF point meteogram · Archived-run chart API · Product explanation. Chart © ECMWF, CC BY 4.0.
What the season has historically been like
Climate reference, not a 2026 forecast. ERA5 reanalysis for 1991–2020 at the requested location shows a substantial cooling tendency from mid-October into early November. These estimates represent a coarse model grid with elevation processing, rather than a weather station at the exact point.
1991–2020 calendar-period averages| Dates | Mean daily high | Mean daily low | Historical daily highs, 10th–90th percentile |
|---|
| 14–20 Oct | 31.0°C | 19.3°C | 27.3–35.1°C |
| 21–27 Oct | 29.6°C | 18.1°C | 26.2–33.5°C |
| 28 Oct–3 Nov | 27.3°C | 16.7°C | 24.4–30.5°C |
| 4–7 Nov | 26.4°C | 16.2°C | 22.8–30.6°C |
For the same 25 calendar days across those 30 years, total rain averaged 5.4 mm, with a median of 2.8 mm and a 10th–90th percentile range of 0.1–16.1 mm. At least one day with 1 mm or more occurred in 19 of 30 years. These historical frequencies are not the probability of rain this year. Local thunderstorms and runoff are poorly represented by a single coarse grid cell.
Historical daily maximum sustained model wind speed had a median of 12.7 km/h, with a 10th–90th percentile range of 8.5–17.3 km/h. These are background conditions, not current gust guidance; exposed ridges and channels can differ.
Source: ERA5 via Open-Meteo Historical Weather API. ERA5 grid centre 30.75°N, 35.00°E; 0.25° resolution; provider elevation 140 m. Daily boundaries are fixed UTC+3 throughout this cached dataset, not adjusted for historical daylight-saving changes. Percentiles describe past daily or period variability, not forecast confidence intervals.
Sources, freshness and reproducibility
Forecast retrieval: 14 October 2026 01:47 IDT. Coordinates: 30.8186875, 35.0584375. Open-Meteo elevation: about 140 m. Grid locations and elevations are recorded in the manifest.
Latest metadata timestamps are provider status, not proof that every horizon belongs to that one run. Rolling forecast APIs can combine current short-range output with earlier long-range runs. In particular, extended GEM guidance can come from an earlier extended cycle. Raw responses and metadata are retained; exact fixed-run attribution is not asserted.
Sensitivity to including AI models
Repeating the calculation using only the physical ensembles (IFS, GEFS, ICON, GEM and MOGREPS), the largest difference over available days 1–15 is 1.4°C in the central high, 1.1°C in the central low, 3.6 percentage points in daily ≥1 mm rain probability, and 0.0 percentage points in ≥40 km/h gust probability. These are method-sensitivity checks, not proof that either blend is more accurate. Additional method details appear below.
Method and practical limits
- Each member is aggregated into local-day minima, maxima and rain totals before probabilities and quantiles are computed. Model variants share their family’s weight; available families receive equal weight. Deterministic forecasts are displayed separately.
- Temperature, rain, wind and gusts use their own available family sets. Models without gusts do not count as calm. A full day is required for a daily statistic; missing values are never converted to zero.
- These are family-balanced scenarios, not statistically independent votes. AI models, numerical models and national centers share data and sometimes initial conditions. In particular, Google WeatherNext 2 uses ECMWF initial conditions; Google is a model-family entry here, not an independent observational confirmation. A physical-model-only sensitivity comparison is provided. No local skill weighting or bias correction is claimed without adequate validation.
- Local dates follow Asia/Jerusalem, including the 25-hour day on 25 October. Hourly rain and gust intervals ending at midnight belong to the preceding day.
- Grid and interpolated point forecasts cannot resolve individual tents, gullies, exposed ridges or every convective shower. Nearby observations and official warnings supplement the models; they do not prove the weather at this exact pin.
- Daily CSV includes long-range numerical diagnostics for audit only; the main report intentionally summarizes dates beyond 15 days as periods.
- All forecast and reanalysis data accessed through Open-Meteo are credited to their originating centers and Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0). See ensemble documentation and metadata documentation.